Hidden Hardship
“Hey, I lost my job unexpectedly last week.”
An old friend told me this over the phone. He’s a very smart, competent executive – the kind of person I would actually ask for professional advice or send someone else to for guidance. I never would have imagined him having to face losing his job. He didn’t even go to a Coldplay concert.
He’s not the only one I’ve heard this from. A classmate of mine lost his job at a tech company and has been doing random project work for months, some of which is unpaid. Another was laid off by a bank and has been interviewing with startups but is expecting a much lower salary. Another hasn’t lost his job but there’s a hiring freeze at his organization and he’s expecting his compensation to flatline even including cost-of-living adjustments.
It's become something of a pattern among my network. Part of this might be that I’m a Gen X-er, and when you’re in your late 40s or early 50s, careers can turn kind of quickly. Part of it is that some of these people work in technology and media, which are industries that are going through rising layoffs. Part of it is AI, which is right now being utilized more and more by various companies. One founder said to me, “We’re not firing people, but we’re also not hiring people we otherwise would have hired if AI wasn’t doing a lot of the work we used to have entry-level people do.” A person never hired may as well be as good as a layoff for that individual, though they’ll never know it. A professor at a prestigious university told me that for the first time he has former students calling him saying they can’t find a job and they’re driving Ubers for a living.
I was on CNBC recently talking about this latest trend. Dario Amodei, CEO of AI company Anthropic projected that AI could replace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 5 years, causing unemployment to surge. I’m sure he’s right. And it’s not just white-collar jobs. I recently rode in a Waymo robot taxi in Los Angeles and the experience was very impressive. Would I choose it over an Uber driver? Yes, I would. It was more peaceful and less stressful, even if the Waymo’s ultra-cautious driving made the trip 2 minutes longer. You get to play your own music instead of listening to the driver’s, and you could be obnoxious or take calls because you’re alone. Also, in this case the Waymo was 25% cheaper. I said, “Thank you” to no one in particular when I got out of the car out of habit. I’ve used Waymo several times since last week.
Driving a car or truck is the most common job in 29 states. I’m sure Waymo is already putting a dent in the frequency of Uber requests in Phoenix, San Francisco, Austin, Atlanta and LA where it’s currently operating. They’re expanding soon to Miami and D.C.
This is all happening in a country where 60% of Americans already can’t afford a decent standard of living. So . . . if drivers, entry-level workers, and experienced executives aren’t faring well, who is?
That’s really the question. Too much of our information is conveyed through either media networks that typically cheerlead for ongoing efficiencies or influencers who may be anomalies in the marketplace; they may enjoy superstar economics (there are always a few winners in every field, even a diminished one) or be subject to a constant incentive to adopt a veneer of success; who the hell wants to listen to someone who is struggling to make ends meet? That’s for real life, not the fake one I want to see online or on TV.
So how does one figure out what’s actually going on? Of course, you start with your own life; odds are your costs are creeping up. If you’re stressed, then it’s certain that others are too. Check in with the people around you and listen. Express some vulnerability and you’ll often hear it reciprocated. I occasionally turn to stats like credit card delinquencies, which are pushing record highs. 20% of job-seekers have been searching for at least 10 months.
Trust me when I say there’s a lot of struggling going on underneath the surface. And the water level is rising in unexpected ways, capsizing people one wouldn’t expect. Just about everyone has a fight they’re engaged in.
If you’re doing well, appreciate it and take advantage of it! Maybe squirrel some earnings away for a rainy day. Times can change quickly and you don’t want to be unprepared. If you can give to the needy, by all means do so.
If you’re struggling, please know that you’re not alone. We will be looking for ways to help, which I know sounds far-fetched but is sincere.
On a personal note, thank you for following me and subscribing to this email list/ Substack. Someone said to me, “Hey Andrew, you can’t be fired unless you decide to fire yourself!” That’s not quite right, but in my case I’m very grateful for those who help make this work possible. Thank you.
Enjoy the summer and appreciate what you’ve got! There’s a lot of hardship hiding in plain sight out there.
To see what Forward is doing, including our 3rd birthday party, click here. Also this week I interview Rob Sand, a fellow Brown grad who is running for Governor of Iowa; for my convo with him click here.
You’ve given me good reasons to keep using taxis, Ubers, and Lyfts. I meet the drivers, who are people I otherwise would never have met, compete with their music, their opinions, their smiles, and their personality. I meet students, people working around family commitments, immigrants, and people who often know their city really well.
The sterile efficiency of a Waymo ride seems primed to further and facilitate isolation.
I can appreciate the efficiency of Waymo and I, too, would probably opt for one in a place like Cleveland.
I am a delivery driver for a living and, even though it might cost me hourly work, I try my hardest to create efficiency in the routes I run.
When I was going through unemployment counseling 21 years ago this summer, the guy who was my case manager said that selling yourself as someone who adds material value to a company makes sense. Since then, I have always had bullet points on my CV that demonstrate, at least, an approximate cost savings to my employer through a specific action I have taken.
I, as of a few weeks ago, am on the other side of an age where employment discrimination is a real concern. I have a small safety net and a comparable retirement. I can’t afford to be inefficient. My significant other is a contractor. To put it mildly, we have our share of concerns.