Maduro

Well, Trump decided to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in the dark of night over the weekend.

One reason to celebrate is that Maduro’s extraction happened so dramatically with apparently no American casualties. That’s a phenomenal achievement by the Special Forces.

I confess to being deeply conflicted and ambivalent about this action. On one hand, Maduro is a bad guy, an autocrat and a driver of the international drug trade. Venezuela has been such a troubled country that millions have already fled as refugees, including to the U.S. Millions celebrated his ouster, which was facilitated by military leaders there. The oil industry in Venezuela is functioning at maybe 25% of its potential due to poor management, sanctions and Maduro being something of a pariah. Unlocking that potential could be a massive boon to the standard of living of millions of Venezuelans and the entire region.

On the other hand, the Trump crew doesn’t seem to have a great plan for the follow-through. It’s a unilateral action taken without Congressional approval or notification. It kicks off a “law of the jungle” era where foreign leaders can be kidnapped by superpowers. It sets a real ‘might makes right’ precedent in one’s sphere of influence that bodes poorly for what’s to come.

Trump came to power in part as a backlash against some of the nation-building misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now we may be doing it again in Venezuela.

As you know, I ran for President. I sometimes reflect on what I would do in various situations. I’m not someone who would rule out intervening if there’s a malignant actor who is harming Americans and his own people through corruption and criminality. Apparently, Maduro was given multiple warnings and off-ramps. Sometimes, action is preferable to inaction. I yet regard America as a force for good in the world.

In most things though, what matters most is not whether it’s a good idea or not but how you execute, stick around and follow through. I joke that I sometimes have a good idea and then spend 5 years trying to make it happen. There’s always a chance you make a bad situation worse. Running a country from a boardroom thousands of miles away is unrealistic.

Will America be willing to engage in a way that improves life on the ground for the people of Venezuela and the region for the next 5 – 10 years? That’s the key, unanswered question. Time will tell. I have the feeling that Trump will be long gone by the time we know the answer, while millions will be living with the consequences.

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