Melissa Hortman

It was deeply saddening to see the shootings of Minnesota state lawmakers last week. Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed at home and John Hoffman and his wife are in the hospital hoping to pull through. I didn’t know them, but I’ve met hundreds of state legislators over the past number of years.

It was in some ways only a matter of time. Political polarization has gotten worse in this country. The assault on Paul Pelosi, Jan. 6^th, the assassination attempts on Donald Trump, the killing of Jewish embassy workers, and the murder of the UnitedHealth CEO have all contributed to an environment where violence seems more normalized. People who monitor this say the online threat environment is orders of magnitude worse than it has ever been. After the January 6^th attack on the Capitol, friends tell me that the atmosphere in the halls of Congress changed from an open environment where members and staffers might exchange words in common areas to security, closed doors and scuffling to your destination silently.

I had death threats when I was a candidate. Each time, my team took me aside and said that there was a credible threat, and law enforcement was investigating. In one case, they included info about a location. In that situation, I said, “Okay, let’s proceed as planned and keep an eye out.” You have to live your life, and there’s always a level of risk. My family bought me a bulletproof vest during this time, but it felt like wearing a barrel and looked ridiculous.

The environment has gotten much worse in the last few years.

Here's something that some might not want to hear, but most elected officials are pretty easy to get to. State reps are often part-time, unpaid or lightly paid and out and about. The same is true even for many members of Congress; they attend events regularly at county fairs and whatnot.

Security is very expensive. Having a person follow you around also is a major hassle. I generally opted to not have security because it actually calls attention to you; people are like, “Who’s the person with a bodyguard?” Security personnel are very conspicuous.

Imagining that you could somehow secure elected officials against attacks is unrealistic, particularly when you are talking about state officials, of which there are thousands. A motivated shooter who is willing to kill and die is extraordinarily difficult to guard against, especially in a land where guns are commonplace.

The political scientist Brian Klaas observed that there are a few conditions for political violence: polarization, rhetoric from leaders, and access to weapons. There are over 300 million firearms in the United States; we are the most heavily armed society in the history of the world. We are at an unprecedented level of polarization. And leaders on both sides regularly use the language of enemies and combat when describing politics and policy. Trump is one of the worst offenders, but he has a lot of company.

I’m a data guy; I interviewed Barbara Walter (“How Civil Wars Start”), Stephen Marche (“The Next Civil War) and Peter Turchin (“End Times”), two of whom are professors of social science. They found patterns of how democracies decline and trace America’s progression on this track. They each expect political violence and attacks to increase until the fever breaks, which could take years.

What would break the fever? Typically something so heinous and terrible that everyone takes a step back and says, “Okay, enough is enough.” There is a period of exhaustion on both sides with the violence. You can see this playing out in other environments, for example in Northern Ireland. Here in the 60’s, another time of polarization, you had the assassinations of JFK while President, RFK while running for President, MLK Jr. and Malcolm X. Some think Jan. 6th would have done the trick had Mike Pence been killed.

Will the home shooting of Melissa Hortman be the final straw?

Probably not.

One reason I started Forward was that I believed that a third force in American politics that opened primaries and implemented ranked choice voting would reduce polarization. The mechanics and incentives are clear; if you get rewarded for being inflammatory on social media or during a closed primary then that’s what you’ll do.

The incentives remain in place. Two things are true; individual shooters often act alone, but the environment matters.

I hope that we can evolve without an era of violence. But the data and history are not promising. It’s already too late for Melissa Hortman and her family. What will it take for us to turn the page?

To see what Forward is doing in your area, click here. For something uplifting, I interview rockstar Adam Met about his new book Amplify: How to Use the Power of Connection to Engage, Take Action, and Build a Better World here. Feel free to put down your phone and take a beat if the news is getting to you.