Repeating Their Mistakes

Occasionally something happens that gives me a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. It happened this past Friday when the DNC announced that South Carolina would be the first primary state in the 2028 Democratic primary. The DNC committee voted 26 for South Carolina, 19 for Nevada, and 4 for New Hampshire.

“Okay, so what?” you ask.

Let’s go back to the 2020 primary - Joe Biden’s campaign is on life support in February after weak results in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Bernie is on the march. Then, Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina endorses Joe Biden. Joe Biden surges and gets 49% of the vote, beating Bernie’s 2^nd place finish by 30 points. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out and get behind Biden, who then wins Super Tuesday and becomes President.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Jim Clyburn was the reason that Joe Biden became President in 2020. His reward was twofold: first, Clyburn pushed Joe Biden to name Kamala Harris as his running mate. Second, South Carolina was moved up to be the first primary state in 2024. This served as a giant red ‘Stop’ sign telling candidates not to run against Joe Biden in 2024 – I was in South Carolina with Dean Phillips when Dean flouted the establishment by running against Joe.

After Biden’s disastrous debate and decision to step aside, Jim Clyburn also pushed Joe Biden to anoint Kamala Harris in 2024 without a competitive primary. That didn’t go well.

What will Jim Clyburn’s agenda be in 2028? Well, this might be unwelcome news, but Kamala Harris is telling people in California that she is running for President again. She showed up to a political event last weekend that was a pretty clear step in that direction. And with South Carolina awaiting her as the first state, her campaign just got an enormous leg up. Jim Clyburn will almost certainly put his thumb on the scale and, due to his enormous influence in South Carolina, ensure that his chosen candidate wins.

I spent a lot of time in South Carolina. I really like the people in the state. But South Carolina isn’t a swing state, and its voters are disproportionately swayed by what Jim Clyburn tells them to do. He probably moved Joe Biden from 15% to 49% in 2020.

If you were rational, you would have all of your primaries take place in swing states because 1. You would have a lot of time, energy and money spent in those states which could pull voters your way in the general election and 2. You kind of want voters who represent the general electorate. New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan are all swing states. So are Georgia and North Carolina if you wanted a southern state.

As you might be able to tell, I think this whole thing is a disaster. I ran alongside Kamala Harris in 2020 – that campaign did not go well for her. She dropped out before the voting started. And in 2024, I thought her poor performance in interviews made her team gunshy about having her do interviews, which is kind of a crucial thing in a presidential campaign.

That said, she has universal name ID and a humungous list as well as some loyalists like Jim Clyburn who will help shrink the field. And what else is she going to do? It’s either run again and stay relevant or recede into quasi-retirement. Her path just got a lot easier.

Jim Clyburn is 86 years old. His endorsement shaped the 2020 primaries. Will it shape the 2028 field as well? I sure hope not, but I fear it will. The DNC just handed him the first big lever that will embolden the wrong candidate to run. The Democratic Party doesn’t learn from its mistakes; it closes ranks and repeats them.

I hope your summer is going great! For my conversation with Lauren Pinkston, who is running for Governor of Tennessee as an Independent endorsed by Forward, click here. To check out Forward Party candidates in your area, click here. To get a copy of “Hey Yang, Where’s My Thousand Bucks?” click here and use the code “UBIUBI” for 25% off. For 3 months off your mobile bill with Noble Mobile, click here or email matt@noblemobile.com and use my name to switch or explore. I got recognized for being on a reality TV show for the first time this week by an 18-year-old girl who definitely would not have known who I was otherwise and felt strangely proud.