The 2025 Shutdown

Well, the federal government is now shutting down because Congress couldn’t come to a deal to extend funding. How long this will last is anyone’s guess. The last shutdown in 2018 lasted a record 35 days and cost the economy at least $3 billion. Several hundred thousand government workers were furloughed – asked not to report to work and were not paid – in 2018. This time may be worse. There are about 2 million civilian federal government workers, not including the military. I talked to someone in D.C. and households are hunkering down there and preparing for a significant disruption.

For the record, I think this is a mistake on both sides. Republicans should take this opportunity to undo some of the less popular health care cuts in their big beautiful bill. Democrats are overplaying their hand because this administration will relish the ability to shut down various agencies and only operate their own priorities. It’s hard to negotiate with a crew that has a significant anti-government strain in its DNA. The Dems are being exhorted by their base to fight, but this is a fight it’s not clear they can win.

By the way, Chuck Schumer faced a very similar situation back in March, when he backed down and approved a continuation of government funding. He took a ton of heat for it from within the Party. This time, he’s determined to show that he won’t back down.

I find this to be misguided. A government shutdown is going to hurt the country economically and institutionally. I think Chuck did the right thing in March. The problem is that the politics of today don’t reward someone thinking pragmatically about what happens to the average American or the average government worker or small business owner in Maryland. You have to demonstrate that you are a strident partisan warrior. On this one, I think Dems are playing into the Republicans’ hands as Trump and company are going to take this opportunity to accelerate a reshaping of the government and its workforce.

The Democrats have become the de facto party of safeguarding institutions. If one goal is making sure the government continues to operate, this isn’t going to serve that goal. It’s possible that this tactic leads to a concession from the Republicans, as Trump has signaled a willingness to deal on healthcare because he senses that the cuts will be unpopular when they are actually felt. Some Republican Senators are also for a one-year extension pushing the health care cuts back. But Trump will be eager to cast the Dems as the agents of this particular shutdown. He has a point, as Dems historically have advocated for clean funding patches when the situation was reversed.

As my friend in D.C. said, “Well, the National Guard is walking the streets and the government is about to shut down for God knows how long, so things are going great.” The era of institutional decline is about to lead to a destructive shutdown of unknown length, which now seems like an obvious outgrowth of polarization. What is going to bring leaders back to the table? I hope at some point common sense prevails, but that is anything but a given. The first shutdown since 2019 is on, and where it leads is anyone’s guess. But every hour does harm, and the prognosis isn’t positive. As usual, the people deserve better.

To try and get us beyond polarization, check out Forward Party which is doing great work around the country and Fairvote, which champions reforms like Ranked Choice Voting. If you’re worried about saving money in a time of disruption, check out Noble Mobile, which is growing quickly every day.