The Ultimate Game of Chicken

How will the shutdown end?

The federal government shutdown is now entering its 4th week. It started on October 1st and as of this writing there’s little optimism. The record for a shutdown – set during the first Trump administration – is 35 days, which would take us to November 4th.

But the deadline for millions of Americans is a bit earlier: November 1st. This is because SNAP benefits – food stamps – would be cut off for Americans in at least 25 states as of the 1st of the month. This would affect at least 20 million Americans who are teetering on the edge of food scarcity out of the 42 million who use food stamps each month. Some states have already started notifying families that they won’t get their usual stipend at the beginning of November to buy groceries. Imagine being a working poor American struggling to get by and then receiving that message.

As you’d imagine, Republicans are eager to pin the upcoming deprivation on Democrats. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) prodded, “What’s it gonna take … for the Democrats to say, ‘Gee, huh, maybe — maybe people should be able to eat.’”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Dems’ lead decision-maker, puts it back on the Republicans, saying “[The imminent ceasing of food stamps availability] should change Republicans’ calculus, that they should sit down and negotiate — negotiate a way to address this crisis.”

This is how bad the polarization is; both parties blame each other while tens of millions of American families wonder how to put food on the table heading into the holidays. Polling shows that Americans are split on who to blame but that there’s plenty of blame to go around; three-quarters of Americans think that both parties bear at least ‘moderate’ responsibility for the shutdown.

That seems right.

One reason the Democrats are willing to run out the clock is that November 1st also marks the date that millions of Americans are expected to have their health care premiums shoot up because of the Republicans’ curtailing of Obamacare benefits. Their bet is that Republicans will want to return to the table to keep that from happening.

In any kind of rational world, both sides would broker a deal before the November 1st deadline. Republicans might concede on the extension of healthcare subsidies, in part because several Senators and Donald Trump seem to sense how unpopular a spike in premiums will be. Democrats would be hastening to a resolution because who wants to see poor Americans literally unable to feed themselves?

Do we live in a rational world? Chuck Schumer in March opted to keep the government open because he didn’t want Trump to be able to run roughshod on various agencies. But the politics of now demand that he ‘fight.’

I was fearful at the beginning of the shutdown because I wasn’t sure either side had a way out. For Democrats, it’s hard to come back without a meaningful concession on healthcare after all of this bluster. For Trump, his entire persona is to burn the bridges and win at all costs, consequences be damned. The shutdown’s direct damage to the economy is around $100 million per day.

As an optimist, I think reason prevails and the shutdown ends by this weekend with Republicans giving the Democrats something they can claim as a concession or the Dems giving in to avoid widespread harm to constituents. But at this point, would any of us be surprised if they claimed a new record and blew past 35 days while millions starved? When politics becomes combat, the people become bystanders and victims. Polarization rises, and the people lose. It should infuriate us and break our hearts.

Forward is working to reduce polarization around the country. You know another way to become less inflamed? Get off your phone more! Email matt@noblemobile.com if you want a few months off from your wireless bill and want to be rewarded for logging off with Noble Mobile. This week on the podcast I interview real life magician Blaise Serra on how you become one of the best. Offline is on the way to Brooklyn, Chicago, SF and LA in November in connection with the Scott Galloway podcast tour – see you there!