Trump on the Wane

Well, Trump’s hold on the Republican Party loosened a lot last week, as hundreds of congressmen voted to release the Epstein Files over his objections.

It wasn’t just that vote. The November elections were a bad look for Republicans, signaling that the midterms may harbor bad news for the party in power. Voters aren’t seeing any progress on inflation. The Supreme Court seems skeptical that Trump’s tariff powers are legally appropriate as tariffs are normally under Congressional control. His redistricting campaign is hitting stumbling blocks in Texas and Indiana. Infighting has arisen within the administration.

Also Trump himself seems . . . physically and mentally weaker. It feels like he’s fading out and becoming more lame duck than dictator before our eyes. Trump’s positive meeting with Zohran could be interpreted in this light - it felt like an aging uncle commending the next generation.

I confess to being surprised by this. I thought that Trump’s maximalist bullying approach would hold sway over his Party until at least the midterms. He’s falling prey to the most basic of problems, which is that he can’t actually make anything better in terms of groceries and prices, and the people are turning on him. He’s 79 in an office that accelerates aging. It doesn’t help that he seems preoccupied with ballrooms and gold décor while the frustration deepens.

Kara Swisher said last week on the Pivot Tour, “I don’t think Trump finishes the term.” I think she may be on to something.

What does this mean? Democrats will cheer that this is their chance, as in the zero-sum version of American politics, Dems feel better and better about their 2026 prospects. Most of the major Democrats are jockeying for position in the presidential primary. I spoke to South Carolina Democrats recently and they are already vetting candidates. Not much will be resolved on that side until the Democrats hash out their own leadership contest in about 28 months. That’s a long time from now.

The heir apparent to MAGA is J.D. Vance; he also naturally ascends as VP if Trump steps down or is indisposed for any reason. Vance and Trump’s children seem to have formed a deep relationship.

I’m dubious though that Vance would be able to keep MAGA together. Trump has unique appeal and his own celebrity and gravitas. He’s a performer and movement leader. Those traits aren’t really transferable. I think the party fragments. Marjorie Taylor Greene stepping down doesn’t necessarily mean that the internal strife will end.

Still, if I’m sitting here trying to figure out what comes next, so are a lot of other people. The figure who has dominated American politics for much of the last decade may be passing from view. Will Trump continue to defy gravity? This time feels different. In my experience, things often end slowly, slowly, slowly . . . and then all at once.

To build the next chapter in American politics, check out Forward – we have some very exciting announcements coming. Next up on the Offline Tour are Boston, Baltimore, and back to NYC. Email matt@noblemobile.com if you want a few months off from your wireless bill and want to be rewarded with Noble Mobile. My new book comes out in February. Remember to look up and touch grass.