Where Dems Are the Spoilers
Hello, I hope the summer is going great for you.
A surprising Politico article came out a couple days ago titled: “Dems are increasingly desperate to get their Senate candidates to drop out of these races.” It details how many or most Democrats want their Senate candidates in Montana and South Dakota to drop out and clear the way for Independents Seth Bodnar and Brian Bengs to have one-on-one matchups with the Republican candidates in these 2 reliably red states because the Democrats have no chance to compete while Seth and Brian do.
For example, in Montana, Seth Bodnar is statistically tied with the Republican Kurt Alme if it’s one-on-one, while the Democrat Alani Bankhead polls way behind in every circumstance. The Democrat Bankhead raised only $35,000 this quarter, with only $21,000 on hand (!!!). Meanwhile, Seth Bodnar raised over $1.1 million with almost $1 million on hand. Kurt Alme, the Republican raised $800,000 and has $1.4 million on hand.
Read that again: the Independent Seth Bodnar raised 30 times more this quarter and has almost 50 times more money than the Democrat and is essentially at parity with the Republican. This is categorically a race where the Democrat is the spoiler.
The Dem nominee in Montana, Alani Bankhead, says “nobody ever knows what’s actually going to happen in an election,” and “absolutely nothing” short of an act of God will get her to drop out of the race. Meanwhile, Nancy Keenan, the former executive director of the Montana Democratic Party who has endorsed Bodnar along with former Senator Jon Tester wrote that “there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race.”
It’s infuriating that a candidate with no real shot is going to give this race to the Republican. Talk about a spoiler.
The gulf in South Dakota between Independent Brian Bengs and Democrat Julian Beaudion is not quite as enormous – $113,000 to $18,000 this quarter – but the dynamic is the same. Bengs, the Independent, polls competitively with South Dakota Republican Senator Mike Rounds while Beaudion is a non-factor statewide.
As a former candidate myself, I’ve always been reluctant to call on anyone to drop out of a race. Deciding to run for office is a huge personal commitment, and the sacrifice deserves some measure of deference and respect. That said, for these 2 candidates, the choice to continue is clearly playing into the hands of the opposition.
Will they do the right thing?
I confess to being totally rapt as to whether Alani Bankhead and Julian Beaudion will adopt some common sense and drop out. I’ve been surprised by the level of press and near un-animity that Bankhead and Beaudion should step aside. If they continue to run as no-hope candidates, they will ensure that there’s no genuine competition in these 2 U.S. Senate races. Alternatively, if they step aside and clear the way for Independent candidates with genuine followings to provide real challenges to their opponents, they could change national politics for the better.
For Beaudion in South Dakota, decision day is tomorrow. The deadline for Bankhead in Montana to see the light is August 10th. We will find out very quickly if South Dakota and Montana join Nebraska and Idaho as states where Independent candidates are creating contests where no one expected. I hope they do, for the good of the country.
For my interview of Seth Bodnar click here. For my interview of Brian Bengs, click here. For my recent “Hey Yang, Where’s my Thousand Bucks?” book talk in LA with Maddie Connors, click here. To check out Forward Party candidates including Todd Achilles click here. To get a copy of “Hey Yang, Where’s My Thousand Bucks?” click here and use the code “UBIUBI” for 25% off. For 3 months off your mobile bill with Noble Mobile, click here or email matt@noblemobile.com and use my name to switch or explore. Look up this summer.