Mayor Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani won the Mayor’s race last night and is now the Mayor-Elect of New York City. Despite his historic win, the hard part in all likelihood lies ahead. I wrote this when he won the primary this summer:

Last week, Zohran Mamdani posted a resounding victory in New York City’s Democratic primary. It was a shocking outcome to many, as Zohran was young and unknown taking on Andrew Cuomo, who had money, the establishment and universal name ID, albeit with very mixed feelings among many voters from his time as Governor.

I think Zohran is likely to have a walkover in November unless the current field of Eric Adams, Jim Walden, Curtis Sliwa and Andrew Cuomo consolidates to just one or two candidates, and even then you’d have to project Zohran as the heavy favorite. He is very likely the city’s next mayor.

Zohran triumphed despite the NYTimes and others clearly having it out for him. The institutions have less sway than ever, and voters are hungry for something new.

The reactions have been all over the map. People have been calling me with questions ranging from excitement to “Should I leave the city?”

I met with Zohran and Cuomo, as well as multiple other mayoral candidates before the primary. They met with me to seek advice but also an endorsement, as they thought I could move some voters their way. I declined to endorse for a number of reasons. I had former staffers and colleagues associated with 4 different campaigns, and didn’t want to step on anyone out of loyalty to another. I see my role as an Independent reformer of the system. Last, I had complicated feelings and thoughts.

I had met Zohran prior to this campaign and sat down with him a number of weeks ago. I found him to be a good person who wants good things for people. He’s a sincere and talented messenger. He is positive and not the least bit hateful or corrupt. He is newly married and comes across as dedicated and energetic.

I also think Zohran is smart and adaptable. Some folks who are ideological come across as stuck in their thinking – I don’t think that’s an issue with Zohran. I believe he will figure out a lot of things in real time. He certainly figured out a lot about how to connect with people as a candidate.

Big picture, I agree with his goal of making New York City more affordable. The rent in New York has gotten higher and higher – I hear it from young people I work with all of the time and can scarcely believe what they’re paying. One person I know who is working in hospitality is paying close to $4,000 for an apartment that would have cost me $1,500 25 years ago. I like the idea of free child care – it is indeed very difficult and expensive to manage it on your own. Trying to make New York more affordable for the vast majority of its residents is a worthy vision.

Having a young, smart, dynamic mayor with good intentions who will show up for events and neighborhoods big or small and put his best foot forward is a major upgrade among several dimensions. That’s a pretty good summary of why he won. Who would choose the scandal-tarred 67-year old over the next generation?

But I have some concerns, some of which are within Zohran’s control, some of which aren’t.

First, it’s unclear how much of Zohran’s economic agenda he’ll be able to implement and how it would work. Raising taxes on the wealthy for example requires the state legislature to approve, and Governor Hochul has already said that would be a non-starter for her. Would she change her tune next year after Zohran is sworn in? I’m dubious. Free buses sound great, but homeless or near-homeless people would be more likely to use the buses when they’re free and air-conditioned, and you could see the quality of experience go down. Even working-class New Yorkers might miss paying for the bus, which is definitely the cheapest way to get around. City-run grocery stores are a bad idea and would compete with mom-and-pop shops; if you’re not trying to fill food deserts you’re much better off simply giving people vouchers for groceries at existing stores that have razor-thin margins to begin with.

I love the idea of a mayor who wants to make the city work better for working families. That’s a win. I studied this when I ran for mayor, and the mayor’s ability to actually make things more affordable is somewhat limited in scope. I think a lot of people, including Zohran himself, are going to be frustrated at how little the average New Yorker’s cost structure will change.

Meanwhile, business people are very nervous with a self-described socialist heading to City Hall. Imagining that all of these CEO-types will stick around New York under all circumstances is incorrect. You can’t think that people who run businesses are profiteering assholes on one hand, but then also that they’re not up to making a ruthless decision based on different tax rates or relationship with government on the other. If I were Zohran, I’d get in front of as many major business leaders as possible and say, look, you may not always get what you want but you’ll have a line to my administration, if only to complain. A lot of them want the city’s help clearing red tape and whatnot. Giving them face time would get some of them to give you a chance before relocating to Florida.

They’re nervous too because Zohran is 34 years old without a ton of managerial experience. A lot of it will be based on who he gets to run the agencies. Zohran for example should ask Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch to stay on. That would inspire a ton of confidence and continuity. Maria Torres-Springer is another administrator with a great reputation for competence. Build a team that signals professionalism and pragmatism as quickly as possible and it would soothe some nerves.

Zohran has said that law enforcement needs help. He has taken the progressive approach of saying we need more mental health professionals and resources, which sounds good. But among police officers themselves, morale is low and more officers are taking early retirement or moving to find work in Long Island or the suburbs. In my view, you need more officers and should go into recruitment mode. I was endorsed by the police captains’ union and believed that the police force was key to the city’s success. I think culturally that will be a stretch for Zohran.

Zohran has also pledged more resources to combat hate crimes. According to police data, 345 hate crimes were committed against Jews in New York last year, almost one per day. That’s compared to 78 based on sexual orientation and 43 against Muslims in the same period.

I was troubled by Zohran’s academic defense of the phrase “Globalize the Intifada” because it’s a term used by some to justify violence against Jews. My Jewish friends in New York fear that they’re more likely to be attacked on the street now than they were a couple years ago, and that this will get much worse under a Mamdani administration.

Unfortunately, I think they’re right. Antisemitism is real. There are hateful people who will feel emboldened by Zohran’s victory and will use it as an excuse to take out their anger and bigotry on another New Yorker.

This speaks to the fundamental fear I have for Zohran. I believe he is in public service to do good and improve people’s lives, which itself might be unusual in this day and age. But in practice the job may become more about trying to keep very bad things from happening in a big, fractious city.

For example, if I had won the mayor’s race in 2021, I would have faced some very tough situations. I would have had to curtail services to migrants, saying “Look, we are a good and welcoming city, but we also have limited resources. We cannot expend them on the world’s migrants who have come to this country.” I would have been attacked as being anti-black and anti-brown. Someone would have beaten up some Asians on the street, because they didn’t have a security detail. There are constant trade-offs and no right answer. You just make a call knowing that you might look like shit.

Let’s stipulate that Zohran is a good person. This is an era that manipulates us and turns politics into a clash of personalities. Doing what you think is the right thing could feed into the polarization and lead to chaos.

Let’s imagine a scenario; ICE raids pick up under Trump in New York City. Videos of cruelty and masked goons grabbing Latinos and Muslims surface. Mayor Mamdani says, “We are a sanctuary city, we do not give our neighbors up!” President Trump relishes a clash and sends in the National Guard to back up ICE, something as happened in Los Angeles but on a bigger scale. The young Mayor refuses to let go of a detainee and is arrested. He is held for days. His followers erupt in protest. Jumaane Williams takes over as acting mayor. While Zohran is held, violence breaks out. Someone’s house is burned down. Trump uses the disorder to send in more troops.

During this time, images of riots fill the screens. The police are reluctant to put themselves in harm’s way. Attacks on Jews spike. Mayor Mamdani, finally free of ICE, gives an address, saying that “We are better than this. New York is a city of peace and goodwill.” But a sense of disorder fills the air. A major firm decides to leave New York as well as hundreds of families. Conditions deteriorate and passions rise.

Being mayor of New York has not been kind to the futures of Eric Adams, Bill DeBlasio, Mike Bloomberg, or Rudy Giuliani. It’s the kind of job that eats people up.

One reason some held their nose and voted for Andrew Cuomo was the sense that New York City is a diverse land of 8.2 million packed into a compressed area and a bit of a powderkeg. New York City Democrats, including a ton of new voters, chose a young, idealistic leader. I like Zohran. I hope it works out, for him and the city. But I think Zohran is going to have to adopt some new attributes very quickly – what got him here may not be what he now needs to succeed. It may sound crazy, but winning the race might have been the easy part compared with what’s to come.

Forward is trying to reduce polarization around the country. Offline is on the way to Brooklyn, Chicago, SF and LA in November. If you want a break from your wireless bill email matt@noblemobile.com and Noble Mobile will help you look up.