At some point I would love for someone to explain how large corporations and high level execs/leaders who are supposed to be thriving due to AI are going to be so profitable when as many people as you estimate will be unemployed, have no medical insurance, etc., will be paying for the products that all the AI companies excitingly dumping their employees will be offering? Use simple examples like iphones or streaming services etc? Will unemployed people surviving on growing their own vegetables be buying $1500 smart phones or buying expensive Meta Glasses? Will all these unemployed people be paying for Netflix and the myriad of streaming services they pay for today? Someone recent said on CNBC that "with people having so much free time after AI takes their jobs, they will be able to do what they love like go to sporting events and concerts, etc. which is why we are investing so much money in the sport industry." Really? All these unemployed people will be buying tickets that cost hundreds of dollars, to go watch an NFL game? Or unemployed people will be buying 5 streaming services so they can watching their favorite sports everyday?? I feel like no one ever talks about corporations who leverage AI, which if course they will, when half of the people/customers/consumers don't have disposable income.
Andrew, I would love to hear you talk about the need for a Small Business First coalition and an economy that's based on prioritizing small business over big business. After all, it is big business, major corporations that are driving AI.
Don't you agree that we need to have an economy that is local as opposed to one that is driven by major corporations? The whole paradigm that we've grown up with is that we want big businesses in our state because it looks good And employs lots of people.
Well that's the past. Wouldn't you agree?
Local economies based on small business have higher degrees of diversity and therefore strength. They have more stratification, more opportunities for employment and creativity, job satisfaction, and life satisfaction.
I'd love to hear you talk about this. What other thought leaders are talking about this? What states are changing their laws to create a Small Business First set of policies?
I would love to hear about any initiative that champions a small business first policy at any governmental level.
If the desperation that Andrew referred to in this article is really coming this quickly, local governments will have to get creative very quickly to adapt for their constituents. To hell with the federal government: Tip O’Neill’s assertion of “all politics are local” will have its greatest test not just because it’s true but because it will now be necessary.
If an AI application replaces 100 jobs, then it should be taxed as 100 employees were formally taxed. This could fund UBI, and create consumers as well as providing a more efficient "work force".
Hi Andrew- thanks for this article. It really resonated with me. I too lost my high paying middle management job, am volunteering in various places, and will likely have to take a 50-75% pay cut in my next job (if I ever get one!). I first heard of UBI when you ran for president. UBI makes so much logical sense but at the time, I was caught off guard by the novelty of the idea and applied my knee-jerk skepticism I typically apply to completely new ideas. UBI has been marinating in our brains for a while now so is no longer new (i.e. foreign/scary) and lots of us now have some level of personal need for UBI. It seems more realistic to get started UBI on the local level. Any tips for regular citizens to get the ball rolling on this in our city/state?
I also have a small money/sanity saving tip to throw out there to your readers: garden! Grow herbs/greens/tomatoes/beans this spring if possible. Growing a pot of basil, green onion, or kale in your window sill or stealth plot in front of your apartment is cheap, easy, healthy, and fun and may save a few bucks on your grocery bill here and there. Urge your building HOA to replace some of your decorative plants with edible plants.
This, and displaying decorative foliage also requires upkeep from landscapers.
The concept of UBI in my county in Ohio is one that has the potential for traction since our area is the most progressive in the state and it’s not all that close. I feel that progressive states that want to create value for their people will champion ideas like UBI among other progressive concepts to create safe havens for those who trust their governments to do the right things consistently.
I’ve been using AI for years now in an elite high-end “white collar” job, and I used to project what you say here, Armageddon. But I’ve come to reverse my view.
Indeed I’ve been able to deploy ordinary 12-18 month projects in weeks. A project I spent nearly a year on at a high tech company in 2023, was constructed by OpenAI and myself in 2 weeks in November, and another version two weeks ago.
Repeatably, with high success - code, detailed documentation, training. I heard that today I’m being shielded from clients who have started demanding me by name.
But something happened in January. AI’s live on data. They cannot “sense” the real world, and rely entirely on humans to “inform” them what’s happening. I’m using analogies. Human in the loop.
What happened on these projects is the volume of “feeding the beast” started going up. One project has now spawned 6 teams feeding the beast data, and has created several people who are adding software functions, using AI, which all need more data. I got aggressive calls to help feed data.
Instead of reduction, I’m seeing mildly geometric demand growth; but just not in ordinary areas.
Look at a movie with lots of computer special effects sometime. The credits span 10-15 minutes sometimes, far longer than, for instance the old “Jaws”. What was eliminated?
People used to do math by hand on long sheets. They may have used slide rules. There’s a movie about women who performed calculations for space flight. Then calculators: we expected the calculations done in a fraction of the time. I remember my good old TI. Then we had Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets. One accountant or engineer can handle dozens of files of calculations, sped up an order of magnitude. Microsoft excel, and I see teams living with hundreds of spreadsheets of data driving businesses.
Suddenly the systems I made are creating thousands of lines of analysis in for dozens of people on three continents driving their daily routines. I’m trying to give a “size” equivalency. The problem is they must be updated, reviewed with large teams every day now, and fed back to AI written software; delays are unacceptable. This is a “highly automated” system. Data about the real world comes from people.
We are in transition to a new equilibrium in business, and data volumes and flows are going to be much faster and much much bigger. I can’t anticipate where it will land anymore and to a degree I’m paid to know.
I know that the beast, automation, wants gigantic volumes of data, and it wants a lot of attention. AI will make the beast much bigger, and much more demanding of attention. One person can herd dozens of “agents” talking to hundreds to thousands of people.
I blocked my teams in early 2000’s from investing heavily in social media because one post gets dozens (if not hundreds) of replies each of which must be examined, and used, and controlled. That all required staffing.
I share your concern that the rapid expansion of AI could displace large segments of the workforce and trigger serious economic ripple effects. However, I’m not convinced that universal basic income is a viable or sustainable solution. As it’s often framed, it would require those who remain employed — and continue paying taxes — to indefinitely subsidize those who cannot earn a living wage. That raises significant questions about long-term feasibility, incentives, and economic balance. From my perspective, the issue isn’t whether disruption is coming, but whether the proposed remedy truly addresses the structural problems rather than creating new ones
I work in tech and see this coming as well. I appreciate your thoughts about it.
One point: I know Universal Basic Income is part of your platform, and it makes sense that you are suggesting it here. It may end up being one component of the solution. UBI is not sufficient, however, to address what’s coming.
People need meaningful work.
I have a teen about to leave the nest. She’s trying to figure out what to do with her life, and I wonder what to tell her. Where are her efforts needed now? As AI takes over more and more of what used to be in the human domain, it leads to a feeling of meaninglessness that’s poisonous to our kids and our broader culture.
My instinct is to lead my daughter towards the caring professions. Theoretically, AI should offer us the time to take better care of each other. But you’re right about the K-shaped structure. Especially in America, we’re investing less and less in humans, not the other way around. That will have to change, but how? What will drive that investment if humans seem less and less useful?
Andrew — this piece is the doom half of a story that needs both halves told. I wrote the other half: a counter-scenario to Citrini, same macro-memo-from-2028 format, modeling what happens when displaced people stop performing and start living. The thesis is that the Fuckening isn't the end — it's an involuntary liberation. I cite your work directly. Published it this morning into the Iran strikes, which feels right — the ground is shaking and people need something besides fear. Would be honored if you read it.
Andrew — the first thing to do when a tsunami is coming is acknowledge the wave. You've always been good at that. The Fuckening is as honest a name as any for what's about to hit.
I'm 100% committed to how we at least attempt to retrain the American workforce. Whether it succeeds isn't really the point right now. The point is giving a damn good effort while there's still time to try.
At some point I would love for someone to explain how large corporations and high level execs/leaders who are supposed to be thriving due to AI are going to be so profitable when as many people as you estimate will be unemployed, have no medical insurance, etc., will be paying for the products that all the AI companies excitingly dumping their employees will be offering? Use simple examples like iphones or streaming services etc? Will unemployed people surviving on growing their own vegetables be buying $1500 smart phones or buying expensive Meta Glasses? Will all these unemployed people be paying for Netflix and the myriad of streaming services they pay for today? Someone recent said on CNBC that "with people having so much free time after AI takes their jobs, they will be able to do what they love like go to sporting events and concerts, etc. which is why we are investing so much money in the sport industry." Really? All these unemployed people will be buying tickets that cost hundreds of dollars, to go watch an NFL game? Or unemployed people will be buying 5 streaming services so they can watching their favorite sports everyday?? I feel like no one ever talks about corporations who leverage AI, which if course they will, when half of the people/customers/consumers don't have disposable income.
The system eats itself.
Andrew, I would love to hear you talk about the need for a Small Business First coalition and an economy that's based on prioritizing small business over big business. After all, it is big business, major corporations that are driving AI.
Don't you agree that we need to have an economy that is local as opposed to one that is driven by major corporations? The whole paradigm that we've grown up with is that we want big businesses in our state because it looks good And employs lots of people.
Well that's the past. Wouldn't you agree?
Local economies based on small business have higher degrees of diversity and therefore strength. They have more stratification, more opportunities for employment and creativity, job satisfaction, and life satisfaction.
I'd love to hear you talk about this. What other thought leaders are talking about this? What states are changing their laws to create a Small Business First set of policies?
I would love to hear about any initiative that champions a small business first policy at any governmental level.
If the desperation that Andrew referred to in this article is really coming this quickly, local governments will have to get creative very quickly to adapt for their constituents. To hell with the federal government: Tip O’Neill’s assertion of “all politics are local” will have its greatest test not just because it’s true but because it will now be necessary.
If an AI application replaces 100 jobs, then it should be taxed as 100 employees were formally taxed. This could fund UBI, and create consumers as well as providing a more efficient "work force".
Hi Andrew- thanks for this article. It really resonated with me. I too lost my high paying middle management job, am volunteering in various places, and will likely have to take a 50-75% pay cut in my next job (if I ever get one!). I first heard of UBI when you ran for president. UBI makes so much logical sense but at the time, I was caught off guard by the novelty of the idea and applied my knee-jerk skepticism I typically apply to completely new ideas. UBI has been marinating in our brains for a while now so is no longer new (i.e. foreign/scary) and lots of us now have some level of personal need for UBI. It seems more realistic to get started UBI on the local level. Any tips for regular citizens to get the ball rolling on this in our city/state?
I also have a small money/sanity saving tip to throw out there to your readers: garden! Grow herbs/greens/tomatoes/beans this spring if possible. Growing a pot of basil, green onion, or kale in your window sill or stealth plot in front of your apartment is cheap, easy, healthy, and fun and may save a few bucks on your grocery bill here and there. Urge your building HOA to replace some of your decorative plants with edible plants.
This, and displaying decorative foliage also requires upkeep from landscapers.
The concept of UBI in my county in Ohio is one that has the potential for traction since our area is the most progressive in the state and it’s not all that close. I feel that progressive states that want to create value for their people will champion ideas like UBI among other progressive concepts to create safe havens for those who trust their governments to do the right things consistently.
I’ve been using AI for years now in an elite high-end “white collar” job, and I used to project what you say here, Armageddon. But I’ve come to reverse my view.
Indeed I’ve been able to deploy ordinary 12-18 month projects in weeks. A project I spent nearly a year on at a high tech company in 2023, was constructed by OpenAI and myself in 2 weeks in November, and another version two weeks ago.
Repeatably, with high success - code, detailed documentation, training. I heard that today I’m being shielded from clients who have started demanding me by name.
But something happened in January. AI’s live on data. They cannot “sense” the real world, and rely entirely on humans to “inform” them what’s happening. I’m using analogies. Human in the loop.
What happened on these projects is the volume of “feeding the beast” started going up. One project has now spawned 6 teams feeding the beast data, and has created several people who are adding software functions, using AI, which all need more data. I got aggressive calls to help feed data.
Instead of reduction, I’m seeing mildly geometric demand growth; but just not in ordinary areas.
Look at a movie with lots of computer special effects sometime. The credits span 10-15 minutes sometimes, far longer than, for instance the old “Jaws”. What was eliminated?
People used to do math by hand on long sheets. They may have used slide rules. There’s a movie about women who performed calculations for space flight. Then calculators: we expected the calculations done in a fraction of the time. I remember my good old TI. Then we had Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets. One accountant or engineer can handle dozens of files of calculations, sped up an order of magnitude. Microsoft excel, and I see teams living with hundreds of spreadsheets of data driving businesses.
Suddenly the systems I made are creating thousands of lines of analysis in for dozens of people on three continents driving their daily routines. I’m trying to give a “size” equivalency. The problem is they must be updated, reviewed with large teams every day now, and fed back to AI written software; delays are unacceptable. This is a “highly automated” system. Data about the real world comes from people.
We are in transition to a new equilibrium in business, and data volumes and flows are going to be much faster and much much bigger. I can’t anticipate where it will land anymore and to a degree I’m paid to know.
I know that the beast, automation, wants gigantic volumes of data, and it wants a lot of attention. AI will make the beast much bigger, and much more demanding of attention. One person can herd dozens of “agents” talking to hundreds to thousands of people.
I blocked my teams in early 2000’s from investing heavily in social media because one post gets dozens (if not hundreds) of replies each of which must be examined, and used, and controlled. That all required staffing.
We are entering a version of that 1000x larger.
I share your concern that the rapid expansion of AI could displace large segments of the workforce and trigger serious economic ripple effects. However, I’m not convinced that universal basic income is a viable or sustainable solution. As it’s often framed, it would require those who remain employed — and continue paying taxes — to indefinitely subsidize those who cannot earn a living wage. That raises significant questions about long-term feasibility, incentives, and economic balance. From my perspective, the issue isn’t whether disruption is coming, but whether the proposed remedy truly addresses the structural problems rather than creating new ones
I work in tech and see this coming as well. I appreciate your thoughts about it.
One point: I know Universal Basic Income is part of your platform, and it makes sense that you are suggesting it here. It may end up being one component of the solution. UBI is not sufficient, however, to address what’s coming.
People need meaningful work.
I have a teen about to leave the nest. She’s trying to figure out what to do with her life, and I wonder what to tell her. Where are her efforts needed now? As AI takes over more and more of what used to be in the human domain, it leads to a feeling of meaninglessness that’s poisonous to our kids and our broader culture.
My instinct is to lead my daughter towards the caring professions. Theoretically, AI should offer us the time to take better care of each other. But you’re right about the K-shaped structure. Especially in America, we’re investing less and less in humans, not the other way around. That will have to change, but how? What will drive that investment if humans seem less and less useful?
Andrew — this piece is the doom half of a story that needs both halves told. I wrote the other half: a counter-scenario to Citrini, same macro-memo-from-2028 format, modeling what happens when displaced people stop performing and start living. The thesis is that the Fuckening isn't the end — it's an involuntary liberation. I cite your work directly. Published it this morning into the Iran strikes, which feels right — the ground is shaking and people need something besides fear. Would be honored if you read it.
https://rafefurst.substack.com/p/the-2028-aliveness-economy
Andrew — the first thing to do when a tsunami is coming is acknowledge the wave. You've always been good at that. The Fuckening is as honest a name as any for what's about to hit.
I'm 100% committed to how we at least attempt to retrain the American workforce. Whether it succeeds isn't really the point right now. The point is giving a damn good effort while there's still time to try.
Look forward to the day we can meet.
— Dave